Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3834…da24
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$113 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$109 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage244d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET Up 63¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $321 +$35 +11%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $211 +$41 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 1PM ET Oct 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET Oct 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 15? Oct 15 $521 +$21 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 14? Oct 13 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 13 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% +$40
sports 43% +$56
politics 8% +$16
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $356 10h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 100¢ $252 10h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 10h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 10h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 10h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 21h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $121 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 241d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $17 241d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 241d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $26 241d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 241d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 15? SELL No 100¢ $543 241d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on October 15? BUY No 96¢ $521 241d
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $57 243d
Will the price of Solana be above $210 on October 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 243d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $116 243d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $80 244d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+155.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.7% -41.8% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤30d 5 -35.7% -41.8% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤90d 5 -35.7% -41.8% 40% 40% -1.3%
all 10 +182.6% +155.6% 70% 60% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +155.6% 60% -1.8%
10% +131.2% 20% -11.2%
15% +108.8% 10% -19.8%
20% +88.4% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records