Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3835…b8ba crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate75%56W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$1
crypto 21% $0
other 15% −$1
sports 14% −$2
economics 7% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 75 +0.5% -9.0% 75% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses56 / 19
Open positions12
Markets (closed)75 / 87
History coverage165d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 97¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $459 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 14? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 23? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Mar 21 $1 +$1 +149%
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UNCW Seahawks Mar 21 $1 +$2 +244%
Boston Terriers vs. Navy Midshipmen Mar 21 $1 +$3 +269%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 2-8? Mar 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 8? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 8? Mar 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Charlotte 49ers vs. South Florida Bulls Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Winthrop Eagles vs. High Point Panthers Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. BYU Cougars Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 6? Mar 08 $10 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $463 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 4? Feb 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 4 Feb 21 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 23d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $14 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $13 36d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 77d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 77d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 77d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 80d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $15 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.50 · official $79.50 (match) · 233 history records