Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3835…2a09 crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-4%) realized −$113 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%51W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$0
14 days+$10
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$91
sports 24% −$21
world 11% −$2
politics 2% $0
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.0% -29.4% 36% 29% -9.2%
≤30d 111 -16.6% -24.6% 38% 28% -18.2%
≤90d 133 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 28% -19.8%
all 133 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 28% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 28% -19.8%
10% -33.9% 23% -27.5%
15% -40.3% 18% -34.5%
20% -46.2% 12% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses51 / 82
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)133 / 141
History coverage34d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 34¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 40¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 28¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 21¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 62¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 25¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs DarkZero Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Playoffs FaZe Clan 76¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 14¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$8 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1 $0 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 27 $1 +$10 +980%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playof May 22 $17 −$8 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $1 $0 -40%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 21 $2 +$2 +101%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 18 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 18 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro May 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 18 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 18 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 18 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 18 $2 +$5 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Guara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 17 $16 +$1 +9%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm May 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $1 13m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $3 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $2 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $2 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 34m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 36m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 21h
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 21h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.22 · official $10.22 (match) · 463 history records