Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3836…0c93 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$32
politics 24% −$9
sports 13% +$10
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 110 -2.5% -11.8% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage134d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $428 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $246 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $244 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $745 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 9h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $236 18d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $236 20d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $213 26d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $213 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $248 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $248 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $267 28d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $240 28d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 28d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $217 33d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $217 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $275 34d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $275 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $271 34d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $271 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records