Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3838…2c6f
crypto · 461 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,602 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,448 · open −$149
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,227
Realized−$5,448
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses215 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions23
Markets (closed)438 / 461
History coverage195d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 23 History 438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$189
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $564 $571 +$6 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $369 $241 −$128 (-35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $106 $104 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $91 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 68¢ $75 $68 −$6 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 46¢ $59 $46 −$12 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 60¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? No 17¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 02 $107 +$6 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $108 +$14 +13%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 02 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 31 $2,520 +$163 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 31 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 31 $105 +$4 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? May 24 $209 +$4 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? May 24 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 24 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 24 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? May 24 $89 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? May 24 $43 +$1 +3%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? May 24 $1,077 −$53 -5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in April? May 01 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Apr 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Apr 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Apr 19 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Apr 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Apr 19 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? Apr 19 $146 +$6 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $282 +$13 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Mar 28 $63 +$5 +7%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 23 $2,259 −$1,074 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 21 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 21 $30 −$20 -66%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? Mar 20 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Mar 17 $1 $0 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March? Mar 14 $87 +$8 +9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Mar 13 $70 $0 +1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Mar 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Mar 13 $248 +$14 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $1,047 +$12 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $244 +$5 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $87 +$1 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Feb 28 $202 −$33 -16%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 23 $450 +$72 +16%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Feb 23 $245 +$6 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 13 $590 +$66 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 13 $292 +$21 +7%
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? Feb 11 $86 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$2,599
crypto 28% −$1,213
world 14% +$276
politics 11% −$2,094
tech 4% −$33
sports 2% +$66
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $19 38m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $29 38m
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 43m
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 44m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 46m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $22 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $20 13h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $286 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $17 20h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $86 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.1% +6.0% 100% 100% +6.0%
≤30d 18 -7.1% -16.0% 78% 11% -7.1%
≤90d 36 -12.4% -20.8% 75% 11% -31.9%
all 438 -20.0% -27.6% 49% 26% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 26% -25.2%
10% -34.6% 14% -32.4%
15% -40.9% 8% -38.9%
20% -46.7% 5% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,227.40 · official $1,227.41 (match) · 2760 history records