Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x3839…e2ee sports 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,682 (+9%) realized +$9,038 · open −$356
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%194W / 223L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$409est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$695
7 days+$2,519
14 days+$1,593
30 days+$6,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$6,945
world 23% −$97
politics 12% −$788
other 11% −$20
crypto 8% +$1,667
tech 2% +$432
economics 0% −$60
finance 0% −$98
culture 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +11.9% +1.2% 52% 45% +12.6%
≤30d 171 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 43% +0.5%
≤90d 283 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 42% -0.6%
all 417 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 44% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 44% -1.0%
10% -21.4% 41% -10.5%
15% -29.0% 39% -19.1%
20% -36.0% 35% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$71 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$2,675
Realized+$9,038
Unrealized−$356
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses194 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$409
Open positions12
Markets (closed)417 / 432
History coverage500d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $1,260 $1,545 +$285 (+23%)
APYX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $500 $400 −$100 (-20%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? No 45¢ 25¢ $488 $271 −$216 (-44%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $250 $118 −$132 (-53%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $95 $8 −$87 (-91%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 13¢ 2¢ $26 $3 −$23 (-87%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $127 −$102 -81%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $152 +$110 +72%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 17 $356 +$10 +3%
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $36 +$27 +75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $333 +$176 +53%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $177 +$101 +57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$64 +250%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,500 +$335 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $127 +$111 +87%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $254 +$218 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $153 +$264 +172%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,176 +$1,819 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $77 +$309 +402%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $266 +$460 +173%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 12 $50 −$24 -48%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $115 −$106 -92%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 −$75 -98%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $152 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$137 -69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $771 −$451 -58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $76 +$126 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $248 +$225 +90%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $26 +$47 +181%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 −$9 -24%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $619 +$274 +44%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $25 +$29 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$18 +172%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 09 $259 +$72 +28%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 09 $2,579 −$186 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$23 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $204 −$204 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $253 −$7 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $83 +$81 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 11¢ $24 0m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 98¢ $262 1m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $254 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $127 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 56¢ $152 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $150 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 63¢ $366 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 73¢ $63 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ $177 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $253 18h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 18h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $25 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,835 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $238 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $500 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $254 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,000 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $127 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $150 3d
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $128 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,995 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $153 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 18¢ $40 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,675.15 · official $2,684.78 (match) · 1227 history records