Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x383c…5185 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
politics 14% $0
other 9% +$2
crypto 7% +$1
tech 5% −$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 16 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 44 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jul 22 $0 $0 +50%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $18 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $16 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records