Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

38 0x383f…62eb crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$68 (+28%) realized +$68 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate85%17W / 3L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day48.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+12.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+24.5%	+12.6%	85%	80%	+17.6%
≤30d	20	+24.5%	+12.6%	85%	80%	+17.6%
≤90d	20	+24.5%	+12.6%	85%	80%	+17.6%
all	20	+24.5%	+12.6%	85%	80%	+17.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover48.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+12.6%	80%	+17.6%
10% ← realistic here	+1.8%	70%	+6.3%
15%	-8.0%	45%	-4.0%
20%	-17.0%	30%	-13.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +34% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$68

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)85%

Wins / losses17 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day48.0

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 19	$37	+$16	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$5	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$12	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Jun 19	$16	+$9	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$12	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 19	$16	+$5	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$1	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$3	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 19	$21	−$11	-54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 19	$21	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$2	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$3	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$2	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$2	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$6	+118%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$38	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$17	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Up	51¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$23	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$7	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$14	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$12	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$13	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$10	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records