Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x3841…70ca politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$777 (+13%) realized +$565 · open +$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$148
14 days+$463
30 days+$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$331
world 19% +$47
other 18% +$142
crypto 5% +$116
tech 4% +$94
sports 2% +$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 50% +22.4%
≤30d 9 +49.1% +34.9% 67% 56% +50.4%
≤90d 26 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 42% +21.3%
all 49 +1.4% -8.3% 57% 47% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 47% +0.1%
10% -17.0% 37% -9.5%
15% -25.1% 22% -18.3%
20% -32.4% 14% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$40 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$1,122
Realized+$565
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage395d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 29¢ 72¢ $200 $503 +$303 (+151%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 70¢ 66¢ $280 $262 −$18 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 48¢ 48¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $70 $42 −$28 (-41%)
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $80 $25 −$55 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $152 +$142 +94%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 12 $51 −$49 -96%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 12 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $95 +$54 +56%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $98 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 05 $82 +$318 +390%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? May 27 $31 −$9 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $21 +$4 +17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? May 11 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 11 $159 $0 +0%
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 11 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 08 $83 +$38 +46%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 29 $215 +$82 +38%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $35 +$11 +32%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $104 +$64 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 26 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $40 −$4 -9%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? Mar 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 13 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Mar 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 11 $150 −$132 -88%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 25 $200 +$47 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $40 −$4 -10%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 04 $20 +$6 +28%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $20 +$5 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 22? Jan 30 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech? Jan 30 $10 +$19 +194%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $354 +$98 +28%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 26 $350 −$4 -1%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 06 $315 +$42 +14%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 20 $196 +$119 +61%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 01 $146 +$50 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 1PM ET Aug 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 19 $218 +$128 +59%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 20 $200 +$18 +9%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 10 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 28 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July? May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 26 $412 +$78 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $283 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $200 1h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $214 5d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 86¢ $121 5d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 63¢ $95 8d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL Yes 81¢ $95 8d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 82¢ $98 8d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 29¢ $206 8d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 43¢ $102 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $60 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 13d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 60¢ $80 13d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 15d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $56 19d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 9¢ $22 21d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 22d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 11¢ $49 22d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? SELL No 12¢ $25 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY No 9¢ $21 29d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 34d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 11¢ $52 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 1¢ $10 37d
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $50 37d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 81¢ $159 37d
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 37d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 80¢ $159 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,121.58 · official $1,121.58 (match) · 115 history records