Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x3844…6042 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-12%) realized −$45 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$76
world 32% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -65.4% -68.7% 33% 0% -35.9%
all 6 -29.5% -36.3% 67% 17% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 17% -21.5%
10% -42.4% 0% -29.0%
15% -47.9% 0% -35.8%
20% -53.0% 0% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$35 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage281d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $23 $9 −$14 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? May 23 $150 +$6 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $91 +$11 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $62 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 11d
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 33d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 33d
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $156 34d
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 120d
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $102 120d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 120d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 130d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $91 145d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 146d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $20 280d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.61 · official $63.61 (match) · 48 history records