Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3849…dec5 world 42 markets active 3d ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$4
politics 28% +$1
other 16% $0
sports 13% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 14% -10.9%
≤30d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 12 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 8% -10.5%
all 42 +0.2% -9.4% 29% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage275d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $76 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $43 −$3 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $84 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $13 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $29 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $29 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $24 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $9 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $25 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records