Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3849…5c53 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 252L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
sports 24% −$21
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$9
crypto 4% −$6
culture 4% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage138d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $315 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $320 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $617 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $467 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $408 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $517 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $454 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $683 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $285 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $279 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $129 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 54m
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 9h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 10h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 13h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 16h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 18h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 19h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 21h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 22h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 23h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 25h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 27h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 28h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 30h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 33h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 39h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 42h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1438 history records