Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x384c…f003 sports 43 markets active 20h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+24%) realized +$142 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$64
14 days+$123
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$125
world 6% +$14
crypto 3% −$9
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +43.8% +30.1% 69% 69% +8.9%
≤30d 42 +5.1% -4.9% 52% 52% +10.5%
≤90d 42 +5.1% -4.9% 52% 52% +10.5%
all 42 +5.1% -4.9% 52% 52% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 52% +10.5%
10% -14.0% 50% -0.1%
15% -22.3% 48% -9.8%
20% -29.9% 48% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage26d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes 10¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$21 +88%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$16 +80%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$13 +213%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$19 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$16 +78%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $15 +$12 +81%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $31 +$22 +72%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $20 +$17 +81%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $20 +$16 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $14 +$13 +95%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $18 +$16 +88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $31 +$23 +74%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $12 +$9 +75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +103%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $12 +$9 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $31 +$30 +99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $12 +$16 +138%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 26 $10 +$12 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 26 $10 +$13 +121%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 22 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $20 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 23h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $15 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 45h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $20 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $15 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $31 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 55¢ $20 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $20 6d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $31 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $18 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $12 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $31 7d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 84¢ $10 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $12 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 96¢ $22 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $12 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 57¢ $12 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $31 10d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $10 20d
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? BUY No $1 23d
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? BUY No $1 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar $1 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.09 · official $40.09 (match) · 135 history records