Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x384d…0c8a
other · 260 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$82 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage136d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $459 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $340 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $219 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $405 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $341 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $759 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $745 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $503 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $461 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $316 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $411 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $339 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $147 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $631 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $412 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $316 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $304 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 27 $251 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$40
sports 25% −$22
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
economics 7% −$4
world 5% −$9
crypto 5% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 9h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $58 14h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $58 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 19h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 24h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 31h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $58 33h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $19 35h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $19 37h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 40h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 47h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.63 · official $57.63 (match) · 1389 history records