Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384e…a3a6 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%5W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 20% −$15
politics 8% −$6
culture 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
world 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.3% -9.8% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses5 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $297 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $950 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $227 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $411 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $399 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $612 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $372 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $227 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $542 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $586 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 55m
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 6h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 7h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 10h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 12h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 13h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 17h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 19h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 21h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 28h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 30h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 33h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 34h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 38h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 46h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1304 history records