Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x384f…58ad other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$46,790 (+21%) realized +$47,160 · open −$370
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$5,357per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$3,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24,105
7 days−$27,985
14 days−$24,993
30 days−$40,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$25,665
sports 8% −$5,873
politics 4% +$76,630
crypto 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -59.4% -63.3% 25% 25% -53.9%
≤30d 27 -23.1% -30.4% 59% 52% -20.4%
≤90d 40 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 55% +22.1%
all 40 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 55% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 55% +22.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 25% +10.4%
15% -24.9% 18% -0.2%
20% -32.3% 10% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$5,316) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,549 vs −$3,983 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$3,630
Realized+$47,160
Unrealized−$370
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage57d
Avg bet$5,357
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2,000 $1,959 −$41 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 74¢ $2,000 $1,670 −$330 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,051 +$2,749 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32,200 −$26,854 -83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,013 −$1,888 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2,028 −$1,991 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4,013 +$481 +12%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5,316 +$656 +12%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5,025 +$984 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,510 +$359 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2,513 +$512 +20%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $103 −$87 -85%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $2,524 +$1,159 +46%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7,034 −$5,653 -80%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8,074 +$1,343 +17%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,013 −$2,847 -94%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 24 $5,037 −$2,688 -53%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $5,012 +$419 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,028 +$100 +10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $10,052 +$2,046 +20%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5 May 23 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20,163 −$18,541 -92%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $50,285 +$10,532 +21%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $1,004 +$151 +15%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,519 +$1,183 +78%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $1,007 +$309 +31%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15,101 +$4,096 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10,082 +$3,654 +36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,018 +$648 +13%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,011 +$372 +37%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $7,940 +$76,630 +965%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,800 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,025 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $146 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,086 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $3,786 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5,013 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7,048 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10,069 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10,069 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $52 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $73 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $36 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2,013 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,028 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,505 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,007 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,004 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,012 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 10d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2,010 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,025 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,013 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,629.64 · official $3,629.64 (match) · 303 history records