Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3850…a296 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,586 (-17%) realized −$5,586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$821per market
Trades / day78.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,554
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.7% -31.8% 44% 44% -35.0%
≤30d 39 -24.7% -31.8% 44% 44% -35.0%
≤90d 39 -24.7% -31.8% 44% 44% -35.0%
all 39 -24.7% -31.8% 44% 44% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 44% -35.0%
10% -38.4% 41% -41.2%
15% ← realistic here -44.3% 36% -46.9%
20% -49.8% 21% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,055) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$775 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$821
Trades / day78.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $402 −$391 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $1,537 −$1,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $650 +$96 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $1,055 +$509 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $1,549 −$1,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $1,670 +$492 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $1,672 −$130 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $1,560 +$713 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $386 +$285 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1,032 +$778 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $1,038 +$1,140 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1,654 −$1,654 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,548 −$1,548 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $1,922 +$1,415 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $1,712 +$793 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $115 +$159 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $921 +$420 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $460 +$206 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $449 −$449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $949 −$949 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$60 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $1,034 −$1,034 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $1,043 −$1,043 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $699 +$1,432 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $134 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $268 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $513 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $511 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $513 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $135 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $512 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,564 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $720 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $135 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $233 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $287 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $513 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $462 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $517 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $804 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $215 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $513 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2,243 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $138 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $915 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $515 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2,272 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $954 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records