Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3859…8806 other 181 markets active 6h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$705 (+0%) realized +$705 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%22W / 159L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,803per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$41
14 days−$220
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$143
politics 43% −$171
sports 7% +$702
economics 2% −$9
world 2% −$22
culture 1% −$5
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 -9.4% -18.1% 7% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 150 -9.6% -18.2% 8% 5% -9.6%
all 181 -2.7% -11.9% 12% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 9% -9.3%
10% -20.4% 8% -18.0%
15% -28.1% 7% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,681) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$12 · ×9.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$705
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses22 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,803
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,790 −$5 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,699 −$6 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $3,010 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,089 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,041 −$3 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,711 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,681 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $4,478 −$6 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,696 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,216 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $6,079 −$7 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,724 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,140 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,187 −$5 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,147 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,293 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $273 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $1,142 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $5,780 −$6 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,438 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $5,989 −$8 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,578 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,289 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $57 +$79 +140%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $4,290 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,586 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 5h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 8h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,308 9h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,310 11h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 28h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,221 29h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 32h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,074 33h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 35h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,214 36h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,371 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,373 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 2d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,247 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,249 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,201 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,203 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,200 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $946 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $947 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 641 history records