Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x385e…3896 other 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$847 (-5%) realized −$830 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%173W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$156
14 days+$218
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$586
sports 32% +$382
politics 13% −$227
finance 5% −$149
world 3% −$49
culture 1% −$147
tech 1% −$93
crypto 1% −$62
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 35% +4.0%
≤30d 65 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 34% -3.7%
≤90d 252 -21.7% -29.1% 38% 28% -28.5%
all 435 -13.3% -21.6% 40% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 30% -14.4%
10% -29.1% 25% -22.6%
15% -36.0% 23% -30.1%
20% -42.2% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized−$830
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses173 / 262
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions13
Markets (closed)435 / 448
History coverage238d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 60¢ 72¢ $36 $44 +$8 (+21%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup Match? No 52¢ 32¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? No 71¢ 61¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? No 62¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 58¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 46¢ 38¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 51¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31? No 46¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau Jun 19 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$44 +172%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 18 $11 −$1 -7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$31 -60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Romelu Lukaku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $55 +$13 +24%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $7 +$13 +194%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $39 +$14 +36%
Will gas hit (High) $4.70 by May 31? Jun 02 $13 +$7 +56%
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in Jun 01 $13 +$7 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $33 +$17 +52%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open between $7,500 and $7,600 on May 26, 2026? May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth May 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B? May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA BUY No 52¢ $10 20m
Will the announcers say "Loose Ball" during the USA vs Australia FIFA BUY No 53¢ $11 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $26 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $51 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $51 1h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau SELL Yes 58¢ $23 5h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau BUY Yes 55¢ $11 9h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Spain vs Sau BUY Yes 56¢ $11 9h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I SELL No 24¢ $1 10h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I SELL No 24¢ $8 10h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I BUY No 23¢ $3 13h
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Germany vs I BUY No 24¢ $5 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $25 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $25 27h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $26 27h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 19¢ $20 39h
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 56¢ $22 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL No 36¢ $10 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL Yes 47¢ $9 3d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 64¢ $13 3d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 60¢ $7 3d
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 56¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.54 · official $299.53 (match) · 1293 history records