Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x385e…d6bd crypto 220 markets active 12h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$298 (-8%) realized −$135 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%112W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$170
14 days−$264
30 days−$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$315
other 17% +$19
sports 9% +$71
world 9% −$150
politics 5% −$37
weather 2% −$17
finance 1% +$3
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 39% -22.1%
≤30d 178 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 202 -8.4% -17.1% 55% 41% -16.6%
all 203 -8.9% -17.5% 55% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 41% -16.7%
10% -25.4% 28% -24.7%
15% -32.6% 19% -32.0%
20% -39.2% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses112 / 91
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions17
Markets (closed)203 / 220
History coverage91d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-30%)
Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $27 $25 −$1 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 1¢ $30 $5 −$26 (-85%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $29 +$9 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 +$11 +48%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +200%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $113 −$61 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $33 −$31 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $66 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $33 −$23 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 2¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 2¢ $0 12h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 2¢ $0 12h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $0 17h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $5 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $7 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 3d
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 80¢ $12 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 3d
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? SELL No 10¢ $12 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $9 3d
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 56¢ $9 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $17 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $4 4d
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.14 · official $213.15 (match) · 964 history records