Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3868…7ecf sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$96 (+3%) realized +$366 · open −$270
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%4W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,192
7 days+$1,192
14 days+$1,191
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$182
other 6% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +153.2% +129.1% 100% 100% +140.2%
≤30d 21 -34.2% -40.4% 19% 19% -6.8%
≤90d 21 -34.2% -40.4% 19% 19% -6.8%
all 21 -34.2% -40.4% 19% 19% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 19% -6.8%
10% -46.1% 19% -15.7%
15% -51.3% 19% -23.9%
20% -56.1% 19% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$67 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$834
Realized+$366
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses4 / 17
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage30d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Lindorfitos 16¢ 14¢ $291 $248 −$44 (-15%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Lindorfitos 14¢ 12¢ $289 $240 −$49 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Infinite 29¢ 14¢ $329 $159 −$170 (-52%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 28¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $90 +$151 +168%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $380 +$912 +240%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $251 +$129 +51%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $17 −$16 -97%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 01 $119 −$115 -97%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $201 −$196 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $200 −$80 -40%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 21 $101 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $4 +$10 +231%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff May 18 $105 −$101 -96%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner May 18 $105 −$101 -97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $89 −$86 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? May 18 $25 −$6 -24%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $60 −$7 -12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? May 18 $25 −$8 -32%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $106 −$103 -97%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 2 Winner May 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 29¢ $340 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 16¢ $301 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 100¢ $241 1h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 36¢ $90 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 14¢ $300 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $100 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $1,292 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 25¢ $8 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $372 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $379 5h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 64¢ $251 9h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FlyQuest 37¢ $1 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 36¢ $17 14d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY TeamDk 16¢ $119 15d
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 43¢ $201 15d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $120 15d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $200 15d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $14 25d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Stray Team 49¢ $101 25d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY paiN 56¢ $14 27d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL TYLOO 100¢ $14 27d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY TYLOO 29¢ $4 27d
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoff BUY RED Academy 10¢ $5 28d
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY RED Academy 18¢ $100 28d
LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Academy 18¢ $105 28d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Xtreme Gaming 36¢ $89 29d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? SELL Yes $19 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $53 29d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? SELL Yes $17 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.51 · official $835.18 (match) · 37 history records