Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3869…212e politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$3
world 23% −$18
other 15% +$5
sports 11% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 13 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.5%
all 47 +4.3% -5.7% 40% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 11% -10.0%
10% -14.7% 6% -18.6%
15% -22.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -30.5% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage527d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $82 +$2 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $114 −$12 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $69 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $125 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $48 −$6 -13%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $224 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $246 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $225 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $16 $0 -2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? May 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $4 $0 -1%
Islanders vs. Rangers Mar 02 $3 $0 +18%
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 27 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kanye tweet 400 or more times February 20-28? Feb 23 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2025 WM Phoenix Open? Feb 21 $15 +$2 +15%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Feb 03 $1 $0 -36%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 03 $9 +$4 +45%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Jan 21 $3 +$4 +175%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $37 31m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $6 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $6 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 26¢ $21 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $46 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records