Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3869…bfe3 crypto 288 markets active 177d ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,430 (-2%) realized −$14,430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%266W / 22L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,202per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,336
crypto 38% −$16,259
tech 4% +$301
sports 3% +$46
politics 2% +$122
world 1% +$6
economics 0% +$11
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 288 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 3% -10.9%
10% -17.8% 0% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,081) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$925 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses266 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage124d
Avg bet$3,202
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $8,613 +$17 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 03 $3,806 +$37 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 03 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 03 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 03 $4,506 +$20 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 03 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 03 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 03 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 03 $2,966 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 03 $3,480 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 03 $3,465 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 03 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 03 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 03 $520 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 03 $1,485 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 03 $405 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 03 $672 +$40 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 03 $91 +$8 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 03 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 11 $18,801 −$18,801 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 11 $2,723 +$28 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 11 $8,007 +$81 +1%
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference? Dec 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? Dec 11 $351 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on December 10? Dec 11 $3,062 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Dec 10 $915 +$9 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 10 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 10? Dec 10 $955 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on December 10? Dec 10 $4,591 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $5,161 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $1,504 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 10 $1,683 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 10? Dec 10 $1,725 +$7 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 10 $980 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 10 $676 +$7 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 10 $940 +$9 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 10 $2,365 +$24 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 10 $628 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 10 $2,831 +$29 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Dec 10 $164 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 10 $4,277 +$43 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,613 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $78 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $58 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $245 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $96 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $147 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $147 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $87 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $102 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $375 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $300 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $47 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2993 history records