Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x386b…4f0a world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-19%) realized −$260 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%3W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$220
other 35% −$35
sports 6% −$5
crypto 1% −$11
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-66.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -18.5% -26.3% 25% 25% -18.1%
≤90d 12 -39.9% -45.6% 17% 17% -24.4%
all 29 -63.2% -66.7% 10% 10% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.7% 10% -32.8%
10% -69.9% 7% -39.2%
15% -72.8% 7% -45.1%
20% -75.4% 3% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses3 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage152d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $195 $177 −$18 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $90 −$5 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $68 −$10 -15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 +$9 +46%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $65 −$33 -51%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $64 −$32 -51%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $231 −$54 -23%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $98 −$5 -5%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 07 $81 +$17 +21%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $100 −$19 -19%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 18 $12 −$4 -33%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 14 $109 −$31 -28%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $58 −$48 -82%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +106%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 5PM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5PM ET Feb 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $99 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 67¢ $38 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 56¢ $0 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $40 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 57¢ $23 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $23 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 56¢ $22 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $0 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 68¢ $27 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 56¢ $11 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 73¢ $15 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $14 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 61¢ $12 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $14 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 68¢ $13 11d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $33 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $30 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $19 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $91 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $97 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $97 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 12d
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? BUY No 0¢ $1 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 76d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.71 · official $176.71 (match) · 93 history records