Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x386c…2850 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 38L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 27% +$4
sports 22% +$7
politics 14% +$20
finance 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$7
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 3% -9.4%
all 72 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -9.3%
10% -16.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage490d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 72¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+62%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $170 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $335 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $312 −$4 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $170 +$3 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $82 −$2 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $158 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $293 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $89 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $85 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $23 −$2 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $80 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $19 −$7 -36%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $136 +$2 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $794 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $376 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,099 +$2 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $206 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $84 +$18 +21%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Dec 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 23 $4 $0 -8%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 15 $17 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $170 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $170 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $155 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $155 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $15 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $140 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $153 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $153 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $159 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $149 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $83 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $73 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $55 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $27 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $131 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $131 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $43 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records