Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x386c…cf2c crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$137 (-16%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$6
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$211
other 8% −$25
sports 4% +$65
weather 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -77.9% -80.0% 17% 0% -78.1%
≤30d 21 +20.7% +9.2% 19% 14% -12.7%
≤90d 40 -6.1% -15.0% 25% 18% -15.9%
all 116 -11.2% -19.6% 37% 30% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 30% -30.2%
10% -27.3% 23% -36.9%
15% -34.3% 20% -43.0%
20% -40.8% 18% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage95d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $5 +$28 +544%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $6 +$65 +1059%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $5 +$19 +363%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Sandro Kopp May 28 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 28 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 14 $9 +$12 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 14 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 08 $4 +$4 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 08 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 08 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 08 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $21 +$1 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 19 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 18 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 18 $20 −$14 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 28h
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 12d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 78¢ $23 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 21d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records