Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x386c…8323 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$410 (+5%) realized +$427 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 49L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$423
14 days+$398
30 days+$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$410
finance 4% −$25
other 1% +$5
politics 1% +$9
sports 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.1% -9.5% 37% 23% -3.0%
≤30d 75 -9.0% -17.6% 39% 20% -4.4%
≤90d 78 -11.2% -19.7% 37% 19% -4.5%
all 78 -11.2% -19.7% 37% 19% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 19% -4.5%
10% -27.4% 14% -13.7%
15% -34.4% 12% -22.0%
20% -40.8% 8% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$7 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$427
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage54d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $324 +$96 +30%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $150 +$73 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $45 −$10 -21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 −$15 -38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +202%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$3 -15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$6 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 15 $360 −$51 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $380 −$19 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $235 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $40 −$12 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $385 +$36 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $427 +$91 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$5 -10%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,722 +$259 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $125 +$49 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 14 $60 −$10 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$16 +164%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $230 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $40 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $150 +$9 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $220 −$3 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $375 −$12 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $55 −$14 -25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $140 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $15 −$7 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $40 −$8 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 03 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 01 $41 −$3 -6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $20 +$6 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 31 $20 +$12 +59%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 31 $40 +$6 +15%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? May 31 $10 +$4 +40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $112 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $50 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 39m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $78 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $99 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $31 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $200 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $39 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $44 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $8 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 71¢ $223 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 56¢ $100 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 42¢ $20 3h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 34¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $10 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $15 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $60 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $4 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $28 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $30 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.40 · official $93.40 (match) · 348 history records