Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
38 0x386c…fe39 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$39
sports 13% +$59
crypto 10% +$10
tech 9% −$19
politics 4% −$21
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$7
economics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +92.6% +74.3% 56% 50% -4.8%
≤30d 18 +92.6% +74.3% 56% 50% -4.8%
≤90d 18 +92.6% +74.3% 56% 50% -4.8%
all 70 +15.9% +4.9% 56% 50% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 50% -11.4%
10% -5.2% 49% -19.9%
15% -14.3% 39% -27.6%
20% -22.7% 30% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)70 / 80
History coverage565d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 54¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$33 +1668%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $9 +$10 +114%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 +$12 +42%
Jets vs. Patriots Nov 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 13 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 12 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $10 +$14 +138%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $10 +$14 +144%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-15? Aug 27 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a success Aug 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-16? Aug 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy bo Aug 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy? May 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Everton win on 2025-03-15? May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07? May 19 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-03-08? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesfu Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 07 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-18? Feb 05 $10 +$5 +49%
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? Jan 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-30? Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-01? Jan 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? Dec 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-22? Dec 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Dec 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? Dec 22 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-08? Dec 09 $6 +$7 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $3 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $29 5d
Jets vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 98¢ $3 214d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 216d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.56 · official $61.57 (match) · 137 history records