Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x386d…4021 other 36 markets active 18h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$86 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$28
other 2% −$50
economics 1% +$5
sports 1% −$24
tech 0% +$4
world 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -66.1% -69.4% 24% 18% -30.3%
≤30d 17 -66.1% -69.4% 24% 18% -30.3%
≤90d 17 -66.1% -69.4% 24% 18% -30.3%
all 35 -42.2% -47.7% 37% 23% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 23% -10.3%
10% -52.7% 17% -18.8%
15% -57.3% 17% -26.7%
20% -61.5% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage344d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$22 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$12 -9%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? Jan 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 09 $1 +$1 +64%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 09 $12 $0 +4%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jan 09 $11 +$4 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 10 $10 +$4 +45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Nov 10 $8 +$14 +170%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 (BO3) Oct 24 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $10,435 −$25 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September? Sep 22 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 21 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on Septe Sep 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Sep 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Sep 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 39h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 41h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.24 · official $7.24 (match) · 283 history records