Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3878…b416 crypto 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,521 (-26%) realized −$28,504 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate71%587W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12,354
7 days−$13,879
14 days−$16,711
30 days−$17,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,559
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -19.2% -26.9% 59% 37% -37.0%
≤30d 721 -8.0% -16.8% 71% 40% -24.3%
≤90d 829 -8.8% -17.5% 71% 40% -24.4%
all 829 -8.8% -17.5% 71% 40% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 40% -24.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 20% -31.6%
15% -32.6% 9% -38.2%
20% -39.2% 5% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$143 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$28,504
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses587 / 242
Open positions2
Markets (closed)829 / 755
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 86¢ 80¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 70¢ 66¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $407 −$407 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $410 −$410 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$79 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$89 -147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$169 -182%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $56 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $51 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $32 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.16 · official $252.47 · 3500 history records