Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3879…5ad1 crypto 62 markets active 10d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%36W / 25L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$7
sports 5% +$5
other 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 56% -8.7%
≤90d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 56% -8.7%
all 61 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 56% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 56% -8.7%
10% -18.4% 43% -17.4%
15% -26.3% 30% -25.4%
20% -33.5% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses36 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage19d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will United States vs. Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on Jun 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 202 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 10d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will United States vs. SELL 1¢ $1 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will United States vs. BUY 2¢ $2 11d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on SELL 1¢ $1 11d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 202 SELL 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 11d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 1¢ $1 12d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on 202 BUY 2¢ $2 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $2 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 12d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records