Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x387c…8622 crypto 428 markets active 1d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+0%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%287W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$394
weather 6% −$312
other 2% −$166
world 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 47% -14.3%
≤30d 98 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 47% -14.3%
≤90d 171 -7.4% -16.2% 61% 44% -16.6%
all 428 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 41% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 41% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 27% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 20% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses287 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage107d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$11 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 994 history records