Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

38 0x387e…c514 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,855 (+17%) realized +$1,853 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%2W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,355per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	+83.2%	+65.7%	100%	100%	+66.0%
all	6	-17.5%	-25.3%	33%	33%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.3%	33%	-9.3%
10%	-32.5%	33%	-18.0%
15%	-39.0%	17%	-25.9%
20%	-45.0%	17%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,660 vs −$826 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.0 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage

Net worth$978

Realized+$1,853

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses2 / 4

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage235d

Avg bet$1,355

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies	Miami Marlins	59¢	57¢	$776	$756	−$20 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	Chicago White Sox	44¢	48¢	$200	$222	+$22 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	May 23	$1,979	+$576	+29%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Apr 24	$1,999	+$2,743	+137%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Feb 28	$858	−$345	-40%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 28	$2,202	−$1,120	-51%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 25	$1,800	−$1,800	-100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Nov 14	$1,015	−$38	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY Miami Marlins	59¢	$786	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	BUY Chicago White Sox	44¢	$203	1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	SELL Yes	77¢	$501	37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	SELL Yes	77¢	$1,734	37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	SELL Yes	77¢	$320	37d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	60¢	$1,979	64d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	75¢	$975	66d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	72¢	$52	66d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	73¢	$584	67d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	70¢	$190	70d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	73¢	$183	73d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	70¢	$1,613	74d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	80¢	$670	75d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	80¢	$476	76d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1,274	103d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	38¢	$725	103d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	8¢	$511	121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL No	7¢	$514	121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	5¢	$347	121d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY No	14¢	$1,120	213d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1,800	217d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	SELL Yes	81¢	$2,920	217d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1,082	222d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	SELL No	51¢	$977	227d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	53¢	$1,005	234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	BUY No	53¢	$10	234d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.24 · official $999.98 · 26 history records