Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3880…3649 weather 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%117W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% $0
other 18% −$2
crypto 13% −$1
tech 11% −$4
culture 11% +$2
politics 10% −$4
sports 2% −$10
economics 1% −$8
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 69 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 194 -1.6% -10.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -4.0% -13.2% 49% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses117 / 124
Open positions2
Markets (closed)241 / 243
History coverage541d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 1? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will "GREENGREEN - CORTIS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 31 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $29 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $14 10h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 14h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $17 24h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 31h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $4 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 38h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 45h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $8 46h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 46h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 554 history records