Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3880…e04d other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-15%) realized −$384 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$228
sports 6% −$7
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 22% -31.9%
≤30d 9 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 22% -31.9%
≤90d 9 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 22% -31.9%
all 9 -25.2% -32.3% 33% 22% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 22% -31.9%
10% -38.8% 0% -38.4%
15% -44.7% 0% -44.3%
20% -50.1% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$71 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 92¢ $100 $235 +$135 (+135%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 −$106 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$7 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $400 −$7 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $207 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $100 17m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 57m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $95 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $195 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $240 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $197 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $198 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $94 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $113 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $114 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.62 · official $234.62 (match) · 24 history records