Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3880…63e6 crypto 234 markets active 18h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$760 (-5%) realized −$760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%121W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$797
7 days−$1,038
14 days−$1,039
30 days−$1,039
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,047
other 7% −$260
world 2% −$62
politics 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 48% -18.9%
≤30d 219 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 48% -18.9%
≤90d 219 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 48% -18.9%
all 234 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 46% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 46% -19.3%
10% -22.7% 39% -27.0%
15% -30.2% 29% -34.1%
20% -37.1% 23% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)234 / 234
History coverage162d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 234 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $73 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $122 −$116 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $130 −$74 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $70 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $113 −$108 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $158 +$169 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$16 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $471 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$28 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$16 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$86 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $134 −$128 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$32 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $125 +$125 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $117 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$27 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$71 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$142 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $167 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $235 +$58 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$24 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $107 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $116 +$22 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$44 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $17 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $122 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $56 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $130 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $122 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1880 history records