Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3881…804e
sports · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,907 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$192 · open +$1,693
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 53 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$192
14 days−$192
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 33¢ 100¢ $1,168 $3,502 +$2,334 (+200%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Monte 69¢ 69¢ $1,927 $1,942 +$15 (+1%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 68¢ 68¢ $1,699 $1,687 −$12 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 46¢ 48¢ $1,150 $1,187 +$37 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 43¢ 44¢ $1,075 $1,112 +$38 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 53¢ 50¢ $848 $792 −$56 (-7%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Monte 65¢ 66¢ $688 $698 +$10 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $608 $614 +$6 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $598 $604 +$6 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 50¢ 50¢ $519 $514 −$5 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 63¢ 98¢ $319 $494 +$175 (+55%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) TheMongolz 62¢ 90¢ $310 $450 +$140 (+45%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $413 $411 −$2 (-0%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) FUT Esports 66¢ 64¢ $365 $357 −$8 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 93¢ $204 $348 +$144 (+70%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 49¢ 50¢ $275 $279 +$4 (+1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) TheMongolz 44¢ 72¢ $167 $278 +$111 (+66%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $255 $258 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner INOX Division 50¢ 50¢ $246 $244 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 31¢ 30¢ $211 $207 −$3 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 38¢ 40¢ $190 $198 +$8 (+4%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 61¢ 62¢ $195 $196 +$2 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 39¢ 40¢ $193 $196 +$3 (+1%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) SPARTA 29¢ 28¢ $197 $191 −$6 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $185 $183 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,450 −$68 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $435 −$7 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $660 −$17 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $260 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$1,501
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY MOUZ 64¢ $89 0m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $26 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $60 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 46¢ $115 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 54¢ $135 2m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 3m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 5m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $156 5m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $156 6m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $195 6m
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Monte 71¢ $14 9m
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Monte 71¢ $5 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $0 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $1 9m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 10m
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 10m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $260 13m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $13 16m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $255 22m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 25m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $155 29m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 51¢ $4 31m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 32m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $6 32m
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 50¢ $246 34m
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 50¢ $500 34m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 31¢ $56 36m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 40m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 41m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $1 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -29.7% -36.4% 14% 0% -15.4%
≤30d 7 -29.7% -36.4% 14% 0% -15.4%
≤90d 7 -29.7% -36.4% 14% 0% -15.4%
all 7 -29.7% -36.4% 14% 0% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover116.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 0% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 0% -23.5%
15% -48.1% 0% -30.9%
20% -53.2% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,555.18 · official $18,554.59 (match) · 574 history records