Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3882…f6d1 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 34% $0
politics 7% +$3
sports 6% +$5
crypto 5% $0
weather 5% +$2
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 0% -9.7%
all 54 +1.4% -8.2% 52% 4% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -8.7%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage491d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $83 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 25 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 02 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 05 $18 $0 -1%
San Diego vs. Pacific Mar 05 $11 $0 +3%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 05 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $17 +$2 +11%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? Mar 04 $16 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $8 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $8 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $14 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $17 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $24 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $8 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $17 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $11 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $0 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records