Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3884…416d crypto 1206 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$831 (-0%) realized −$831 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate98%1177W / 29L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$431per market
Trades / day69.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$424
14 days−$1,666
30 days−$1,075
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$565
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 3% -9.3%
≤30d 1079 -0.1% -9.7% 97% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 1206 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 3% -9.6%
all 1206 +0.2% -9.4% 98% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 3% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$385 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$831
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1177 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1206 / 1206
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$431
Trades / day69.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1206 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $264 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $2,085 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $2,019 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $506 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1,997 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $520 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,991 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,989 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $357 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $510 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $514 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $257 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $513 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $511 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,704 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1,942 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,940 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $503 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $250 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $494 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $493 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,904 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1,902 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1,894 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,892 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1,890 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $492 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $410 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $479 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $581 −$577 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $617 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $126 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $264 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $12 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $14 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $61 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $730 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $999 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $91 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $54 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $56 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $99 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1,164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $855 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $942 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $979 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $520 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1,943 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,155 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $697 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records