Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3885…2cd8 sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%31W / 26L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days+$274
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$146
other 22% +$98
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -12.3% -20.6% 51% 51% -2.3%
≤30d 57 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 54% -4.5%
≤90d 57 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 54% -4.5%
all 57 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 54% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 54% -4.5%
10% -27.0% 49% -13.7%
15% -34.0% 44% -22.0%
20% -40.5% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$56 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses31 / 26
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage11d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$194 +189%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$128 +126%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$125 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $302 +$73 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$57 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $202 +$88 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$43 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $73 +$48 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 +$133 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $121 +$47 +38%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$44 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $70 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $40 +$12 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $76 +$57 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 +$65 +95%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$30 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $94 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $304 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 35h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $51 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $260 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $230 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $277 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $375 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $302 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $151 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $208 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 78¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $285 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $145 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records