Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3886…1192 other 44 markets active 1d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
crypto 26% −$4
sports 13% +$5
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 78% 33% -5.5%
≤30d 37 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 30% -10.5%
≤90d 37 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 30% -10.5%
all 37 +5.7% -4.4% 51% 30% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 30% -10.5%
10% -13.5% 27% -19.1%
15% -21.9% 16% -26.9%
20% -29.5% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage20d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 $0 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 $0 +8%
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 $0 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 31h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 31h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $1 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 75¢ $2 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $1 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $1 2d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 84¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.92 · official $6.92 (match) · 110 history records