Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3887…9496 weather 856 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$376 (-2%) realized −$369 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%517W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$128
14 days+$44
30 days−$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$406
other 5% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +56.6% +41.7% 76% 27% -5.6%
≤30d 171 -16.9% -24.8% 51% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 851 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 35% -11.0%
all 851 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 35% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 35% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 15% -19.5%
15% -26.0% 7% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses517 / 334
Open positions5
Markets (closed)851 / 856
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 851 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 80¢ 78¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? No 92¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 21 $152 −$17 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $106 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $150 −$18 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 19 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 19 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $154 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 18 $101 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $559 +$192 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $22 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $99 −$24 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $0 +$6 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $325 +$35 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $202 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $151 +$38 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $110 +$20 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? Jun 13 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 12 $42 −$10 -24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $173 +$23 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 80¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 69¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 68¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 68¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 68¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 68¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $138 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 66¢ $84 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 66¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 66¢ $13 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $18 27h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $2 30h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $6 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? SELL No 92¢ $5 42h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL No 79¢ $3 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $5 44h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $30 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.37 · official $403.32 (match) · 3500 history records