Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x388e…24ec weather 484 markets active 8h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$202 (-2%) realized −$201 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate87%422W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days−$18
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% −$48
sports 25% −$176
other 10% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.6% -6.3% 92% 2% -9.1%
≤30d 483 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 8% -11.7%
≤90d 483 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 8% -11.7%
all 483 -2.0% -11.3% 87% 8% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 8% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 1% -20.1%
15% -27.6% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$201
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses422 / 61
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)483 / 484
History coverage29d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 95¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 18 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 98¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $15 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 34h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $5 34h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? SELL No 96¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $30 34h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 37h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 37h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $30 47h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.28 · official $29.05 (match) · 1600 history records