Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x388f…9e77 sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$221 (+0%) realized +$237 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%91W / 43L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$255
sports 31% +$37
other 29% −$15
economics 5% −$35
crypto 2% +$472
culture 1% +$11
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 50% -7.5%
≤30d 2 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 50% -7.5%
≤90d 37 +7.6% -2.7% 81% 38% -9.2%
all 134 +3.1% -6.7% 68% 51% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 51% -9.0%
10% -15.6% 39% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 28% -25.7%
20% -31.3% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1,367
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses91 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)134 / 141
History coverage266d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $680 $675 −$5 (-1%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $298 $299 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $196 $183 −$13 (-7%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $119 $119 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 92¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $794 +$3 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $196 +$9 +4%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $98 +$2 +2%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 17 $5 +$5 +85%
Spread: Suns (-4.5) Apr 17 $11 +$9 +83%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $15,376 −$15 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $15,391 −$15 -0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 14 $30 +$12 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 04 $11 +$9 +76%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $34 −$34 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 31 $38 +$12 +30%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 31 $33 +$17 +52%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 31 $44 +$16 +35%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $13 +$7 +59%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 27 $33 +$7 +20%
Spread: Warriors (-2.5) Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 23 $300 +$75 +25%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $623 −$1 -0%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 21 $114 −$114 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 21 $8 +$2 +28%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 21 $155 +$55 +35%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $22 +$8 +39%
Bucks vs. Hawks Mar 16 $40 +$12 +30%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 16 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bucks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5 Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 14 $169 +$76 +45%
Bulls vs. Lakers Mar 13 $57 +$12 +20%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $78 +$22 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $687 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $797 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $50 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $119 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $299 33d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 37d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 45d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $20 53d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $98 58d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $20 58d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $20 64d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15,360 64d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15,376 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $15,376 64d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $15,391 64d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $15,391 64d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15,407 64d
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 67d
Spread: Suns (-4.5) BUY Trail Blazers 54¢ $11 67d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 70¢ $30 72d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $794 77d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 56¢ $11 81d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $34 81d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 58¢ $12 81d
Knicks vs. Rockets BUY Knicks 51¢ $10 81d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 77¢ $38 85d
Pelicans vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 74¢ $44 85d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 66¢ $33 85d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,366.64 · official $1,366.64 (match) · 553 history records