Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x388f…d1ea crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 493d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%39W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$1
other 15% $0
tech 14% +$1
economics 7% $0
politics 6% $0
weather 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 +0.2% -9.4% 81% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

493d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses39 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage493d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $15 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 10 $30 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 21 $18 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 31d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 63d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 63d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 93d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 150d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $35 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $26 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 243d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $28 243d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 273d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $28 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 362d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 366d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 366d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.20 · official $43.20 (match) · 104 history records