Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3893…29e0 crypto 1039 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$545 (-2%) realized −$545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate68%704W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$327
14 days−$337
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,789
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -5.9% -14.9% 69% 43% -17.7%
≤30d 372 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 42% -14.3%
≤90d 485 -1.6% -11.0% 68% 40% -13.6%
all 1039 -4.3% -13.4% 68% 39% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 39% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 18% -22.2%
15% -29.3% 8% -29.7%
20% -36.2% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses704 / 335
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1039 / 1039
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1039 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $60 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$12 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $59 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $244 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$18 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $65 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$36 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $119 −$5 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records