Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3893…2207 sports 17 markets active 22h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-33%) realized −$27 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$19
other 25% −$6
crypto 7% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 36% 29% -37.1%
≤30d 15 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 27% -45.1%
≤90d 15 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 27% -45.1%
all 15 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 27% -45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 27% -45.1%
10% -47.3% 27% -50.3%
15% -52.4% 20% -55.1%
20% -57.1% 20% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 33¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +106%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 13 $2 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$3 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 37¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $5 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 4d
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 100¢ $3 4d
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 61¢ $2 4d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos SELL Olympiacos B.C. 97¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 21¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 72¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 78¢ $12 5d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos BUY Olympiacos B.C. 74¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $5 5d
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 25¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $12 5d
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Real Madrid 90¢ $9 12d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.64 · official $11.64 (match) · 28 history records