Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3893…8afb crypto 1029 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized −$50 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%485W / 541L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$645
14 days−$29
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$1,667
sports 30% +$645
other 3% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -15.7% -23.7% 38% 36% -22.8%
≤30d 291 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 46% -9.7%
≤90d 1026 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 47% -13.6%
all 1026 -8.6% -17.3% 47% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 47% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 45% -21.9%
15% -32.4% 42% -29.4%
20% -39.1% 40% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses485 / 541
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1026 / 1029
History coverage87d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $429 $462 +$33 (+8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 35¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 45¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $114 +$88 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$49 +96%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $131 +$85 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $31 +$74 +241%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$11 -55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$76 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3AM ET Jun 18 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $139 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$21 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$21 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $76 +$62 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$136 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$37 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$39 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$36 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $192 −$167 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $113 −$9 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $518.64 · official $518.65 (match) · 3136 history records