Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:16:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3895…ac16
crypto · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$321 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$318 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage74d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$46 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$39 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 04 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 04 $60 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 04 $90 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 04 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 03 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 31 $23 +$71 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 44% -27.5%
≤30d 18 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 44% -27.5%
≤90d 44 -38.1% -44.0% 36% 30% -32.8%
all 44 -38.1% -44.0% 36% 30% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 30% -32.8%
10% -49.3% 25% -39.2%
15% -54.2% 20% -45.1%
20% -58.7% 16% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.07 (match) · 188 history records