Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3896…f7bf other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$27 (-9%) realized +$8 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$22
other 43% −$22
crypto 7% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -53.5% -58.0% 25% 25% -22.4%
≤30d 8 -53.5% -58.0% 25% 25% -22.4%
≤90d 8 -53.5% -58.0% 25% 25% -22.4%
all 8 -53.5% -58.0% 25% 25% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.0% 25% -22.4%
10% -62.0% 25% -29.8%
15% -65.7% 25% -36.6%
20% -69.0% 25% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$18 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 20¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$58 +115%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 92¢ $109 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 45h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.00 · official $65.00 (match) · 11 history records